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US allows 8 nations to indulge in Oil Trade with Iran

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The United States said on November 2 it will temporarily allow eight importers to keep buying Iranian oil when it re-imposes sanctions on November 5. The aim of these sanctions are to force Iran to curb its nuclear, missile and regional activities. 

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who announced the decision, did not name the eight, which he referred to as “jurisdictions,” a term that might include importers such as Taiwan which the United States does not regard as a country. Though, Bloomberg quoted a US official saying that the eight countries exempted from the sanctions include, India, Japan and South Korea.

Sanctions would uphold until Iran meets demands. These demands include ending support for terrorism, ending military engagement in Syria and completely halting its nuclear and ballistic missile programme.

US gave this temporary relief in order to check the sudden rise in oil prices. The countries are expected to reduce and later shut the import of Iranian crude. 

Zero Crude

US government is planning to cripple the Iranian economy and for that, wants ‘zero crude’ export from Iran. Pompeo said Washington will issue temporary waivers to the eight Iran oil importers “only because they have demonstrated significant reductions in their crude oil and cooperation on many other fronts.” Among these 8 countries, two would stop imports and the other six would greatly reduce them. He later said the ultimate goal was to stop all Iranian crude exports.

We will ultimately move Iran to zero crude oil. That’ll take us some number of months to do that. We’ve been able to do that in a way that hasn’t had a huge impact on crude oil prices. That’s a good thing for American consumers.

Pompeo told Fox News. 

Iran Reaction

Iran is quite confident that it would not trouble much. Though the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions, target not only its oil and gas sector but also shipping, ship-building and banking industries.

America will not be able to carry out any measure against our great and brave nation … We have the knowledge and the capability to manage the country’s economic affairs. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi told state TV.

Though the relief for Iran is temporary and doesn’t affect much in the starting but the effects will show its true colors in the coming few months. The natives are quite worried and fear that further squeeze can really cripple the citizens. For importing nations, sanctions are headache as Iran exported crude quite cheaper since the last few months. For India, it would create a vacuum as it became the 2nd largest oil seller in April-June quarter. Trying to cripple Iranian economy is a method of USA to warn the countries who are going against the wishes of the White House. Since no one wants to go against the USA, the sanctions will remain effective till miracle happens. 

Iran becomes the second largest oil seller to India

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Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Monday that Indian refiners received more oil from Iran than from Saudi Arabia in the last quarter (April-June). Due to this, it regained its position after 7 years. Toughening of sanctions on Iran by US government is not showing any effects.

Dharmendra Pradhan told lawmakers in a written reply that India shipped-in 5.67 million tonnes or about 457,000 (bpd) of oil from Iran in the first 3 months of this fiscal year.

Iraq continues to be the top oil supplier to India in the April-June period.

New Delhi shipped-in 7.27 million tonnes of oil from Iraq, while shipments from Saudi Arabia figured 5.22 million tonnes — making it the third-largest supplier, Pradhan’s statement showed.

Sanctions on Iran by US

United States sanctions against Iran refer to economic, trade, scientific and military sanctions against Iran, which have been imposed by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control, or by the international community under U.S. pressure through the United Nations Security Council.

In 1979, after the U.S. permitted the exiled Shah of Iran to enter the United States for medical treatment, a group of radical students took action in Tehran by seizing the American Embassy and taking hostage the people inside. The United States responded and President Carter issued Executive Order 12170 in November 1979 freezing about $12 billion in Iranian assets, including bank deposits, gold and other properties.

The sanctions against Iran has met a lot of criticism. According to the U.S. National Foreign Trade Council, in the medium-term, lifting US sanctions and liberalizing Iran’s economic regime would increase Iran’s total trade annually by as much as $61 billion (at the 2005 world oil price of $50/bbl), adding 32 percent to Iran’s GDP. In the oil-and-gas sector, output and exports would expand by 25-to-50 percent (adding 3 percent to world crude oil production).

Opening Iran’s market place to foreign investment could also be a boon to competitive US multinational firms operating in a variety of manufacturing and service sectors.

Pressure by US on India

Indian Oil Ministry has asked refiners to prepare for the ‘zero Iranian oil import’ from November as United States cut business ties with Iran. The move from India came as a surprise as earlier, India has said that it doesn’t regard unilateral decisions made by US but only decisions made by UN.

But despite showing such a ruthless stand, India, the second biggest Iranian Oil importer after China, is not going to risk itself in front of US Financial system.

US sanctions on Iran pose risk to profitability

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemical Limited (MRPL) has already shown concern over its profitability if the sanctions on Iran comes into play. MRPL imports 25% of its crude from Iran.

“The sanction on Iran, which is an important supplier of crude to the company, is also an immediate threat to profitability. The reduction in supplies of crude from Iran, following sanctions will have an impact on crude prices globally and will affect the company in the short term,” MRPL said. “To a lesser extent, the ongoing clean fuel regulatory changes will also have an impact on the company and will necessitate the addition of facilities to comply with the requirement.”